Foreclosure Follies: A rebuttal to the FDIC modification plan.

The Wall Street Journal continues its theme on the inherent weakness of the FDIC's proposed mortgage bailout plan. We commented on the FDIC's Sheila Bair's Mortgage Miracle on December 3, 2008. The FDIC responded to the WSJ in a letter to the editor "Our Foreclosure Plan" on December 7, 2008.

According to today's editorial,

The FDIC wants to pay loan servicers to restructure delinquent loans and then have taxpayers share the losses if the loans fail again after six months. The FDIC did not appreciate that we reported private data showing that more than 50% of modified loans go delinquent again. The agency suggested that 15% might be a better estimate.

That estimate just got a lot harder to defend. Comptroller John Dugan released the default numbers on loans modified in the first two quarters of 2008, based on data from institutions servicing more than 60% of all first mortgages. "What makes these quarterly reports unique is that they are not merely surveys, but instead consist of validated, loan level data," said Mr. Dugan. "We believe the reports include the most accurate and reliable data on mortgage performance that is available today."

The Journal's approach was somewhat ratified by a report issued by the Comptroller of the Currency, John Dugan, that showed high default rates following modification. "The results, I confess, were somewhat surprising, and not in a good way."

The editorial continues,

"Of mortgages modified in the early part of this year, more than 35% had gone at least 60 days delinquent again after just six months, and a full 53% were 30 days delinquent or more. By eight months, this default rate had climbed to 58%. Second quarter modifications are on track to be nearly as ugly, with more than 50% of borrowers at least 30 days delinquent at the six-month mark. Come to think of it, these stinkers are going south so quickly that perhaps the FDIC's plan actually will protect taxpayers -- there won't be much left to insure after these toxic loans blow up in the first six months after modification."

Perhaps New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine should take a closer look at these numbers and accept the strong possibility that his efforts to stop foreclosures will create more havoc in the real estate market by not allowing "toxic loans" to blow up and clear the mortgage out of the market place and allow the property to get into the real estate market sooner than later.


Stephen M. Flatow

Vested Title Inc., 648 Newark Avenue, P.O. Box 6453, Jersey City, NJ 07306.
Tel 201-656-9220. Fax 201-656-4506. E-mail vti@vested.com

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